A COVID-19 Vaccine will be approved in Q1 2021

ABSTRACT

The widespread availability of an effective and safe vaccine is seen as a game changer in the global response to the coronavirus pandemic. There is plenty of news circulating about coronavirus vaccines and associated debates about timelines. As of early October 2020, a vaccine has not been approved in the United States.

In this paper, we present a probabilistic methodology to generate confidence intervals for the availability of vaccines in the USA. The question we will answer: when will a vaccine be approved in the…